Each project shows a range: the weakest and strongest cycle results that type of project has produced. It is useful only if you read it honestly.
The common mistake
Anchoring on the top of the range and mentally treating it as the expected result. The top is the best case, reached in good conditions. Building plans on it sets you up for disappointment in an average cycle.
A better approach
- Assume a result nearer the low end and check you are still content with that.
- Treat anything above the midpoint as a good outcome, not the baseline.
- Compare the width of ranges between projects — a wide range means more uncertainty, not more opportunity.
Why ranges vary
Newer project types have short histories, so their ranges can shift as more cycles complete. Established projects with many cycles give you a range you can lean on more.